ERCOT faces mounting reliability challenges from data center expansion and renewable integration. At Energy Exemplar, we developed a comprehensive probabilistic resource adequacy framework using PLEXOS to evaluate ERCOT's long-term reliability through 2050. Our analysis quantifies adequacy metrics across scenarios spanning load growth trajectories, technology cost evolution, policy sensitivities, and fuel price uncertainties. Beyond probabilistic assessment, we examined tail risk by modeling Winter Storm Uri extreme weather conditions, identifying critical vulnerabilities in future portfolios during compound stress events. This integrated framework combining capacity expansion optimization, probabilistic adequacy assessment, and extreme weather stress testing would provide actionable guidance for navigating ERCOT's transition to high-renewable, high-load operations.
