New Study Explores Natural Gas and Solar PV Growth in PJM Markets

A new peer-reviewed paper co-authored by Dr. Joe Nyangon and Prof. John Byrne, “Estimating the impacts of natural gas power generation growth on solar electricity development: PJM's evolving resource mix and ramping capability,” has been published in WIREs Energy & Environment.

The study examines how increasing natural gas-fired generation influences distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) Interconnection between 2008 and 2018. Using a sophisticated empirical dynamic panel data model and system-generalized method of moments (system-GMM) estimation, the research accounts for technical, market, and policy changes over time, as well as forecasting errors and business cycles.

Key findings reveal that natural gas generation does not crowd out solar PV in PJM capacity markets, though effects vary across jurisdictions and market conditions. Interestingly, no significant relationships were observed between solar PV development and nuclear, coal, hydro generation, or overall electricity consumption. The study emphasizes the importance of state policies, including renewable portfolio standards, net energy metering, and energy storage solutions, in shaping solar capacity growth.

This research provides critical insights for grid planners, policymakers, and energy stakeholders aiming to balance natural gas expansion with renewable energy integration. It underscores the nuanced, localized interactions between market structures, policy incentives, and distributed solar deployment in modernizing power systems.